Least-cost targets and avoided fossil fuel capacity in India’s pursuit of renewable energy

India has set aggressive targets to install more than 400 GW of wind and solar electricity generation by 2030, with more than two-thirds of that capacity coming from solar. This paper examines the electricity and carbon mitigation costs to reliably operate India’s grid in 2030 for a variety of wind and solar targets (200 GW to 600 GW) and the most promising options for reducing these costs. We find that systems where solar photovoltaic comprises only 25 to 50% of the total renewable target have the lowest carbon mitigation costs in most scenarios. This result invites a reexamination of India’s proposed solar-majority targets. We also find that, compared to other regions and contrary to prevailing assumptions, meeting high renewable targets will avoid building very few new fossil fuel (coal and natural gas) power plants because of India’s specific weather patterns and need to meet peak electricity demand. However, building 600 GW of renewable capacity, with the majority being wind plants, reduces how often fossil fuel power plants run, and this amount of capacity can hold India’s 2030 emissions below 2018 levels for less than the social cost of carbon. With likely wind and solar cost declines and increases in coal energy costs, balanced or wind-majority high renewable energy systems (600 GW or ≈ 45% share by energy) could result in electricity costs similar to a fossil fuel-dominated system. As an alternative strategy for meeting peak electricity demand, battery storage can avert the need for new fossil fuel capacity but is cost effective only at low capital costs (≈ USD 150 per kWh).

India emitted 3.2 billion metric tons of CO₂e in 2016, or 6% of annual global greenhouse gas emissions, placing it third only to China and the United States (1). One-third of these emissions were from coal-based electricity. At the same time, both per capita emissions and energy use remain well below global averages, suggesting a massive potential for growth of electricity generation and emissions (1). India’s primary energy demand is expected to double by 2040 compared to 2017 (2). Whether this energy comes from fossil or low-carbon sources will significantly affect the ability to limit average global temperature rise to below 2 °C.India is already pursuing significant technology-specific renewable energy targets—100 GW of solar and 60 GW of wind by 2022—and, in its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC), committed to a 40% target for installed generation capacity from nonfossil fuel sources by 2030 (3). In 2019, in part to fulfill its NDC commitment, the Indian government proposed to install 440 GW of renewable energy capacity by 2030, with 300 GW of solar and 140 GW of wind capacity (4). Although costs of solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind technologies have declined significantly in recent years (5–7), the low cost of coal and integration costs associated with variable renewable energy (VRE) technologies like wind and solar may hinder India’s cost-effective transition to a decarbonized electricity system. This paper seeks to answer a number of questions that arise in the Indian context. What targets for wind and solar capacity have the lowest associated integration costs? Will these targets significantly offset the need to build fossil fuel generation capacity? What additional measures can we take to mitigate VRE integration costs?Merely comparing the levelized costs of VRE with the costs of conventional generation ignores additional cost drivers, which depend on the timing of VRE production and other conditions in the power system (8, 9). Quantifying these drivers requires models that choose lowest-cost generation capacity portfolios and simulate optimal system operation with detailed spatiotemporal data. Several prior studies address these system-level integration costs in a capacity expansion planning framework (10–16), often making decisions based on a limited sample of representative hours. Other studies explicitly estimate the relationship between long-run economic value (including integration costs) of VRE penetration levels (17, 18) but do not include VRE investment costs in their analysis. Few prior studies explore the impacts of high VRE penetration on India’s electricity system, and those that do either use the capacity expansion framework and do not evaluate the economic value of multiple VRE targets (4, 19, 20) or do not optimize capacity build around proposed VRE targets (21).Here we address this gap by estimating how different VRE targets affect the cost to reliably operate the Indian electricity system. To do so, we work with three interrelated models. First, using a spatially explicit model for VRE site selection, we identify the lowest levelized cost wind and solar sites to meet different VRE capacity targets, and study how the resource quality—and corresponding levelized cost—of selected sites changes with increasing VRE targets.Second, using a capacity investment model that accounts for VRE production patterns and optimal dispatch of hydropower and battery storage, we determine the capacity requirements and investment costs for coal, combined cycle gas turbines (CCGT), and combustion turbine (CT) peaker plants. Due to uncertainties in their future deployment (22), and because their current targets are relatively low (4), we did not consider new nuclear or hydro capacity in the main scenarios but include those in the sensitivity scenarios presented in SI Appendix, section 2. Third, we use a unit commitment and economic dispatch model to simulate hourly operation of the electricity system and estimate annual system operational costs. This model captures important technical constraints, including minimum operating levels, daily unit commitment for coal and natural gas plants, and energy limits on hydropower and battery storage. Rather than cooptimize VRE capacity, we compute the system-level economic value of a range of VRE targets by comparing the sum of the avoided new conventional capacity and energy generation costs to a no-VRE scenario. The net cost for a scenario is then the difference between the levelized cost of the VRE and the system-level economic value. Materials and Methods provides more detail on this process.Our results show that, despite greater levelized cost reduction forecasts for solar PV compared to wind technologies, VRE targets with greater amounts of wind have the lowest projected net carbon mitigation costs. This finding is robust to a range of scenarios, including low-cost solar and storage, and lower minimum generation levels for coal generators.We find that, although VRE production displaces energy production from conventional generators, it does very little to defer the need for capacity from those generators due to low correlation between VRE production and peak demand. Our findings suggest that VRE in India avoids far less conventional capacity than VRE in other regions in the world. These capacity requirements are slightly mitigated if India’s demand patterns evolve to more closely resemble demand in its major cities. Overall, we conclude that the importance of choosing the right VRE mix is significant when measured in terms of carbon mitigation costs: Whereas most solar-majority scenarios we examined lead to costs greater than or equal to estimates of the social cost of carbon (SCC), wind-majority mixes all cost far less than the SCC.     

Education and Levels of Salivary Cortisol Over the Day in US Adults

Background  

Dysregulation of the hypothalamic–pituitary–adrenal axis is hypothesized to be an important pathway linking socioeconomic position and chronic disease.     

Laboratory assessment of anti-thrombotic therapy in heart failure,atrial fibrillation and coronary artery disease: insights using thrombelastography and a micro-titre plate assay of thrombogenesis and fibrinolysis

As heart failure, coronary artery disease and atrial fibrillation all bring a risk of thrombosis, anti-thrombotic therapy is recommended. Despite such treatment, major cardiovascular events such as myocardial infarction and stroke still occur, implying inadequate suppression of thrombus formation. Accordingly, identification of patients whose haemostasis remains unimpaired by treatment is valuable. We compared indices for assessing thrombogenesis and fibrinolysis by two different techniques in patients on different anti-thrombotic agents, i.e. aspirin or warfarin. We determined fibrin clot formation and fibrinolysis by a microplate assay and thromboelastography, and platelet marker soluble P selectin in 181 patients with acute or chronic heart failure, coronary artery disease who were taking either aspirin or warfarin. Five thromboelastograph indices and four microplate assay indices were different on aspirin versus warfarin (p < 0.05). In multivariate regression analysis, only microplate assay indices rate of clot formation and rate of clot dissolution were independently related to aspirin or warfarin use (p ≤ 0.001). Five microplate assay indices, but no thrombelastograph index, were different (p < 0.001) in aspirin users. Three microplate assay indices were different (p ≤ 0.002) in warfarin users. The microplate assay indices of lag time and rate of clot formation were abnormal in chronic heart failure patients on aspirin, suggesting increased risk of thrombosis despite anti-platelet use. Soluble P selectin was lower in patients on aspirin (p = 0.0175) but failed to correlate with any other index of haemostasis. The microplate assay shows promise as a tool for dissecting thrombogenesis and fibrinolysis in cardiovascular disease, and the impact of antithrombotic therapy. Prospective studies are required to determine a role in predicting thrombotic risk.     

Cidea is associated with lipid droplets and insulin sensitivity in humans

Storage of energy as triglyceride in large adipose-specific lipid droplets is a fundamental need in all mammals. Efficient sequestration of fat in adipocytes also prevents fatty acid overload in skeletal muscle and liver, which can impair insulin signaling. Here we report that the Cide domain-containing protein Cidea, previously thought to be a mitochondrial protein, colocalizes around lipid droplets with perilipin, a regulator of lipolysis. Cidea-GFP greatly enhances lipid droplet size when ectopically expressed in preadipocytes or COS cells. These results explain previous findings showing that depletion of Cidea with RNAi markedly elevates lipolysis in human adipocytes. Like perilipin, Cidea and the related lipid droplet protein Cidec/FSP27 are controlled by peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor gamma (PPARgamma). Treatment of lean or obese mice with the PPARgamma agonist rosiglitazone markedly up-regulates Cidea expression in white adipose tissue (WAT), increasing lipid deposition. Strikingly, in both omental and s.c. WAT from BMI-matched obese humans, expression of Cidea, Cidec/FSP27, and perilipin correlates positively with insulin sensitivity (HOMA-IR index). Thus, Cidea and other lipid droplet proteins define a novel, highly regulated pathway of triglyceride deposition in human WAT. The data support a model whereby failure of this pathway results in ectopic lipid accumulation, insulin resistance, and its associated comorbidities in humans.     

Prevalence of abnormal upper limb arterial anatomy and its correlation with access failure during transradial coronary angiography

ObjectiveThe study aimed at to find out prevalence of abnormal upper limb arterial anatomy and its correlation with access failure during transradial coronary angiography.MethodThis was a prospective observational study of 1512 patients who had undergone transradial coronary angiography (CAG). Angiographic assessment of upper limb arterial tree was performed when the angiographic guidewire or the diagnostic catheter followed an abnormal path or got stuck in its course.ResultsAbout 5.29% patients (80/1512) were noted to have abnormal upper limb arterial anatomy. The most common abnormality detected were radio-ulnar loop in 22 (1.46%) patients, tortuous upper limb arteries 19 (1.25%) and abnormal high origin of radial artery 10 (0.66%) patients. Access failure was encountered in 4.4% (67/1512) of total patients and 64.17% (43/67) access failure was due to abnormal upper limb arterial anatomy.ConclusionAbnormal upper limb arterial anatomy was the most common cause of access failure in transradial coronary angiography in this study.     

Too Big to Fail: Successful Resection of a Large Hepatocellular Carcinoma with Portal Tumor Thrombus

Digestive Diseases and Sciences -     

Analysis of the functional integrity of cryopreserved human liver cells including xenografting in immunodeficient mice to address suitability for clinical applications.

BACKGROUND: The availability of well-characterized human liver cell populations that can be frozen and thawed will be critical for cell therapy. We addressed whether human hepatocytes can recover after cryopreservation and engraft in immunodeficient mice. METHODS: We isolated cells from discarded human livers and studied the properties of cryopreserved cells. The viability of thawed cells was established with multiple in vitro assays, including analysis of liver gene expression, ureagenesis, cytochrome P450 activity, and growth factor-induced cell proliferation. The fate of transplanted cells was analysed in immunodeficient NOD-SCID mice. RESULTS: After thawing, the viability of human hepatocytes exceeded 60%. Cells attached to culture dishes, proliferated following growth factor stimulation and exhibited liver-specific functions. After transplantation in NOD-SCID mice, cells engrafted in the peritoneal cavity, a heterologous site, as well as the liver itself, retained hepatic function and proliferated in response to liver injury. Transplanted hepatocytes were integrated in the liver parenchyma. Occasionally, transplanted cells were integrated in bile ducts. CONCLUSIONS: Cryopreserved human liver cell showed the ability to retain functional integrity and to reconstitute both hepatic and biliary lineages in mice. These studies offer suitable paradigms aimed at characterizing liver cells prior to transplantation in people.     

Socioeconomic inequalities in children’s diet: the role of the home food environment

Background

It is well documented in the literature that low socioeconomic status (SES) is associated with lower consumption of healthy foods and that these differences in consumption patterns are influenced by neighborhood food environments. Less understood is the role that SES differences in physical and social aspects of the home food environment play in consumption patterns.

Methods

Using data on 4^th grade children from the 2009–2011 Texas School Physical Activity and Nutrition (SPAN) study, we used mixed-effects regression models to test the magnitude of differences in the SPAN Health Eating Index (SHEI) by parental education as an indicator of SES, and the extent to which adjusting for measures of the home food environment, and measures of the neighborhood environment accounted for these SES differences.

Results

Small but significant differences in children’s SHEI by SES strata exist (-1.33 between highest and lowest SES categories, p<0.01). However, incorporating home food environment and neighborhood environment measures in this model eliminates these differences (-0.7, p=0.145). Home food environment explains a greater portion of the difference. Both social (mealtime structure) and physical aspects (food availability) of the home food environment are strongly associated with consumption of healthy and unhealthy foods.

Conclusions

Our findings suggest that modifiable parent behaviors at home can improve children’s eating habits and that the neighborhood may impact diet in ways other than through access to healthy food.

     

Two-catheter approach for ablation of accessory pathways in different locations

Radiofrequency ablation is the treatment of choice for patients with Wolff-Parkinson-White syndrome and symptomatic tachyarrhythmias. The technique involves localising the pathway with multiple catheters at various sites followed by radiofrequency energy application at that site. Single catheter approach has been described for ablation of manifest left-sided accessory pathways. In this article, we report the ablation of accessory pathways in different locations in patients with Wolff-Parkinson-White syndrome by using a two-catheter approach. Twenty-three consecutive patients with symptomatic Wolff-Parkinson-White syndrome were taken up for radiofrequency ablation with this approach. Pathways could be successfully ablated in 11 out of 13 patients with left free wall, 5 out of 7 with right posteroseptal, one patient of left posteroseptal and each of the 2 patients of right mid septal locations giving an overall success in 19/23 (82.6%) patients. Hence, two-catheter approach can be used safely to ablate accessory pathways in different locations with high success rate, thus minimising the procedure time associated with conventional approach.